Although states are in control of the electoral process, and ultimately electoral votes, media and political money follow front runners as determined by national polls. But that doesn't guarantee a nomination or even a single primary win (ask Rudy Giuliani).
In an article called "2012 and the 2010 Presidential 'Permission Threshold,'" former Congressional staffer and current lobbyist Tom Readmond argues the rank a candidate holds in national polls is far less important than which of two brackets the candidate falls into: Bracket 1) the top three who net double digits, and Bracket 2) everybody else... Automatic also-rans for whom being labeled as second rate becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as they fail to raise money, gain name recognition or communicate ideas -- all the things necessary to grow support.
The "permission threshold" Readmond writes about is simply being taken seriously as a contender by those whose support matters, "The Gang of 500," a term coined by journalist Mark Halperin (in 2004) to describe the political insiders and journalists who influence the daily media narrative in US politics.
In U.S. politics which increasingly seems like it's stuck in a permanent campaign, crossing the threshold for the 2012 Republican nomination is a work in progress.
Tom Readmond blogs for The Next Right and has written for Human Events. He is described as a senior consultant to corporate and political clients for Roberts, Raheb & Gradler, a Washington DC law & lobbying firm. Their page on him lists examples of his public advocacy work in constructing so-called "Astroturf" pressure groups for conservative causes.
Corporate Contender?
Earthquake, tsunami,
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